The first weekend of the Lake Pontchartrain Reaching Circuit is over! Your most "prolific sailboat racing prognosticator" was wrong wrong wrong on half of his forecast. His 2001 forecast spread himself so thin he was bound to be at least half right and that was his intention. He got the weather conditions correct for Sundays drifting crapshoot and wrong for Saturday’s drag race. On Saturday, they had a reach to the Causeway from Slidell then a very shifty beat to M1 off of Mandeville in 14-18 knots of breeze. On Sunday the race was from Mandeville to New Orleans after a short beat and the wind came from just about every direction, mostly east and under 4 knots. Here comes some more forecasting and reporting from your "sailing Matt Drudge wannabe"!
In Class A, Decision really let us down! These guys were at least 45 minutes late for the start and tanked. This really hurts as there were at least 75 boats that counted on them to do the navi-guessing and lead them to the marks (especially Team Tiburon who blew past the first mark on the way to Mandeville). Decision did as forecasted in the second race and won in a dyeing breeze. This will probably happen only one more time and with them already using their throw out, they probably won’t finish in the money overall as originally thought. Underdog, Sherpa won the first race taking advantage of Tiburon’s navigational problems, but showed on Sunday that they couldn’t hang with the other modified Melges in the light stuff. This class is still up for grabs overall for any boat that currently has a cumulative point total of twelve or less. Chutzpah and Heartbeat are still expected to come on strong during the bouy races and should finish 1st and 2nd in class. The Olson 40’s have also showed some consistency and at least one, should finish in the money.
In Class B, the forecast was screwed up due to a class break mix up. Sudpack is still picked to win this class. They should own the bouy races as they sailed strong enough to survive the reaches on their old IOR monster. Man-O-War is reported to have their sail maker on board next weekend so their finishes will be a bit stronger but not enough to finish in the money. The always under estimated "Rags" will finish second overall. If first place was predicted for them, we would have to lose the "always under estimated tag line" that they have been assigned by this reporter. Footloose has been going fast, if they have their sail maker talent on board they may do better than a third place overall finish. Look for Dom again if it blows and Beast if it is light, but these two probably won’t finish in the money.
In Class C, the class breaks were also affected. Even with the changes, "master cookie chef" and Team Jackson on the Trip 26 will still pull off an overall victory (at least that’s who I’m biased towards for no other reason than that I like em’). This is the toughest class with a rating band as wide as twenty-seven seconds. Tiare & Cutlass have both posted consisted finishes and definitely will finish in the money overall. Look for Tiare to clean house in the heavy stuff and Cutlass to win if it stays light. With the Trip, Tiare & Cutlass moving the way that they have been, no one else in this class has a chance. With none of these three boats mentioned dominating…., the "Red Jacket" we’ll be out of reach for this class.
In Class D, the J Spot (what is a J Spot?) and Excalibur have surprised this class. They both had early success, but are expected to fall behind on the bouy courses. It would probably be smart to give up on Flying Tiger at this juncture (especially with those cheesy Florida Gator color scheme crew out fits). I’ll stick with them to win this class though (Where’s Luther when you need him! Help 911 S.O.S). Look for Romeo on Gritz and "the other J-30 that got caught stuffing the voter poll box" too fall in right behind the Pearson Flyer overall in this class.
In Class E, I’ll stick with "Da Bear" and upgrade Tenacity to finish second overall. Outtasight will stay in the money and pull off a third. This class has only scored one race so far and won’t have a throw out since they missed the time limit. This class could possibly produce a "Red Jacket" winner but it isn’t likely. Interesting note here: I tried to shame Throw Down into sailing in this class and they would be winning it if they listened. In the first race, they sailed the same course, started ten minutes behind them and caught half of them on the way to Mandeville. Throw Downs corrected time was over a minute faster than Tenacite on the same course sailed (I hope the rating committee isn’t looking…oh yeah…they don’t use non-spinnaker data and point to point racing in their review of racing data… I’m so sure).
In Cruiser Racer Class, Kon-Kiki has emerged as a sure thing. So far they have the lowest point total and I really don’t see anyone in this class as a real threat on the bouy races. This boat has way too much talent on board and they can start to measure their skipper for a nice new jacket.
In non-spinnaker, the girls on Throw Down RULE! Big Whoop! If they would have went spinnaker, they could have had a shot at the "real prize". With out a chute they managed to sail way up into "Class E" in both races so far! These guys will win it all with no problem. May be next year, with the same rating they can show us some "real jacket" potential.
Now that the distance lottery is over, the real racing begins this Saturday. You are not about to see another guess at the weather, but I sure hope its better than last Sunday. For those of you that were not mentioned or predicted to finish other than first, good luck and I hope you prove me wrong.
-steinkamp
